An important facet in buying and selling is to appropriately establish the long-term development. As soon as that is carried out, the remainder of the steps aren’t very tough as a result of all a dealer must do is search for shopping for alternatives in an uptrend and promoting alternatives in a downtrend. 

In actuality, many merchants complicate the method by ready for decrease ranges to purchase in a bull market and lacking a big portion of the rally. Then, when the development reverses and the value begins falling, the identical merchants begin shopping for, which often leads to losses.


To keep away from this pitfall, merchants can incorporate using key shifting common convergence patterns as a way to have a greater gauge of market momentum and the course of the development. In final week’s article, we reviewed the Death Cross, and this week we are going to take a look at the golden cross sample. This setup will help maintain merchants at bay in a downtrend and provides them a inexperienced sign to begin shopping for when the development turns bullish.

Let’s examine this sample and learn to use it when buying and selling.

What’s a golden cross and the way does it type?

A golden cross is a setup that alerts a potential change in a bearish downtrend. It’s fashioned when a sooner interval shifting common, often the 50-day easy shifting common, crosses above the longer-term shifting common, typically the 200-day SMA.

BTC/USD every day chart. Supply: TradingView

In a downtrend, each the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA are sloping down. Nevertheless, when the value reaches a beautiful valuation, long-term buyers begin accumulating, which arrests the tempo of the decline. As extra buyers begin shopping for, the development begins to show up.

A sustained up-move leads to the 50-day SMA altering its course from all the way down to up. Nevertheless, the 200-day SMA is slower to reply, therefore when it’s both falling or has flattened out, the 50-day SMA rises above it, forming the golden cross.

When a golden cross varieties, it’s a signal that the downtrend has ended and a brand new uptrend may have begun.

Nevertheless, like each setup, the golden cross will not be foolproof. It offers false alerts a number of occasions however with just a few filters, merchants could scale back the whipsaws.

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A worthwhile golden cross

BTC/USD every day chart. Supply: TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed out at $3,858 on March 13, 2020, and the latest golden cross fashioned on Could 21, 2020, when the value closed at $9,061.96. Which means, the BTC/USD pair had already moved 134% from the lows by the point the golden cross confirmed a change in development.

Inexperienced merchants could have felt the value has run up too quick and would have waited for a deep correction to occur earlier than shopping for. Nevertheless, when a development modifications, it not often offers a possibility to purchase at a lot decrease ranges as was the case right here.

The rally by no means regarded again and it hit an all-time excessive at $64,899 on April 14, 2021, a large 616% achieve from the extent the place the golden cross fashioned. This exhibits that the dealer who simply purchased and held after the formation of the golden cross would have earned big returns.

Nevertheless, each golden cross doesn’t present such outsized returns and generally merchants fall sufferer to whipsaws.

A failed golden cross

Bitcoin dropped from an area excessive at $13,868.44 on June 26, 2019, to an area low at $6,430 on Dec. 18, 2019. The golden cross fashioned on Feb. 18, 2020, when the pair closed at $10,188.04.

BTC/USD every day chart. Supply: TradingView

Nevertheless, merchants who purchased after the golden cross fashioned could have suffered fast losses because the pair plummeted to $3,858 just some days later. This exhibits how merchants could generally get caught on the mistaken foot by simply shopping for after the golden cross.

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Filters can when the golden cross throws a false sign

Merchants may keep away from shopping for if the golden cross varieties when the 200-day SMA continues to be sloping down. They will watch for the 200-day SMA to flatten out or flip up earlier than shopping for as that will scale back the whipsaws.

EOS/USDT every day chart. Supply: TradingView

For example, EOS fashioned a golden cross sample on Feb. 8, 2020 when the value was at $4.76. This worth cleared the filter because the 200-day SMA had flattened out. Nevertheless, had merchants taken the commerce, it will have became a loss because the EOS/USDT pair topped out at $5.49 on Feb. 17, 2020, after which plunged sharply to $1.35 on March 13, 2020.

The second golden cross on Aug. 22, 2020, didn’t clear the filter because the 200-day SMA was sloping down when the sample fashioned. This is able to have saved the bulls from getting sucked into this commerce.

The third golden cross on Dec. 12, 2020, cleared the filter however it will have hit the stop-loss because it breached the sturdy help at $2.20 on Dec. 23, 2020. Lastly, the fourth golden cross that fashioned on Feb. 08, 2021, turned out to be worthwhile.

The above instance exhibits that when the value is caught in a spread, the golden cross doesn’t act as the perfect indicator. Subsequently, merchants could add one other filter to purchase solely after the value breaks out of the vary. This may increasingly scale back the whipsaws additional and assist merchants purchase solely in uptrends.

When a cryptocurrency is in a downtrend, merchants could watch for the golden cross to happen earlier than beginning their purchases. This might maintain merchants out of bother in a falling market.

After the golden cross sustains and a brand new uptrend is confirmed, merchants could search for shopping for alternatives. Among the many many prospects, one which was highlighted in an earlier article to purchase on dips to the 20-day EMA or the 50-day SMA may turn out to be useful.

Key takeaways

A golden cross can affirm {that a} downtrend has ended and a brand new uptrend may have begun. Till a golden cross varieties, long-term buyers could keep away from cherry-picking as that will end in losses in a downtrend.

Nevertheless, like each different sample, the golden cross will not be excellent. It could end in whipsaws if the coin enters a consolidation through the bottoming formation. Subsequently, merchants should take precautions to keep away from being sucked into bull traps.

As soon as the uptrend is established after the golden cross, merchants could search for shopping for alternatives and stick with the development until a reversal is signaled.

The views and opinions expressed listed here are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially replicate the views of Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, you need to conduct your personal analysis when making a choice.